In the ever-evolving landscape of college football, the transfer portal has become a pivotal point of discussion, especially when it comes to the performance of players after they leave their alma mater. The question of whether former BYU football players produce more or less after transferring is a complex one, and the answer, as we will explore, is not a simple yes or no. This article delves into the data, offering a nuanced perspective on the performance of these transfers, and it's a story that is both fascinating and thought-provoking for any college football enthusiast.
The Transfer Dilemma
The transfer portal is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it provides players with opportunities to find better playing time and potentially enhance their college football careers. On the other hand, it can lead to a decline in performance, as players navigate the challenges of adapting to new environments and competition. The story of former BYU football players is a testament to this dilemma, with a mix of success stories and cautionary tales.
The Data Speaks
We analyzed 81 transfers from the BYU football program since 2020, and the findings are intriguing. A staggering 28% of these transfers moved down to the FCS ranks, while 20% didn't land on another college football roster at all. These numbers highlight the challenges faced by players who choose to transfer, with many not finding the opportunities they seek. However, the focus of this article is on the 52% of transfers that landed at another FBS school, where the story becomes even more captivating.
Production Drop-Off
Of the 52% of transfers that landed at other FBS schools, the data reveals a concerning trend. Approximately 17% of these transfers would have been better off staying at BYU, as their production dropped off significantly at their new schools. Take, for instance, linebacker Harrison Taggart, who saw his playing time and production cut in half at Cal after transferring from BYU. Similarly, Crew Wakley, who was a backup for the Cougars, only played 60 snaps at Purdue, compared to the 360 snaps he played for BYU in 2024.
This trend is not isolated to a few players. Another 45% of transfers experienced a stagnation in their production, with some even slipping in performance. For example, former BYU starting cornerback Gabe Jeudy-Lally's production at Tennessee in 2023 was nearly identical to his production at BYU in 2022, and his performance at BYU was similar to his time at Vanderbilt in 2021. This serves as a cautionary tale for players who transfer multiple times, as it can stall their development.
Production Boost
However, not all transfers from BYU face a decline in performance. A significant 20% of transfers improved their production after leaving the program. This group can be further divided into two categories: P4 transfers and G6 transfers. Most of the G6 transfers left BYU to find more playing time, and they succeeded, with examples like Miles Davis, who transferred to Utah State and had career-high carries and yards, and Dallin Holker, who became an All-American at Colorado State.
In the P4 transfers, only six players increased their production when they transferred to another P4 school. These are the transfers that BYU would have liked to keep. For instance, Keelan Marion had a career-high 746 yards for Miami, and John Henry Daley, a pass rusher who led the country in sacks before a season-ending injury, transferred out before he could develop fully.
The Verdict
The verdict is clear: transferring away from BYU is more likely to result in a less productive career. Only 20% of transfers out of the BYU football program improved their production, and most of those transfers improved their production by going down to the G6 ranks. Only 7% of transfers went to another Power Four School and improved their production. Half of the transfers did not find another FBS school to attend, and of those who did, 62% either saw their production drop off or remain the same.
In conclusion, the transfer portal presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for college football players. While some transfers succeed and improve their production, the data suggests that the grass is not always greener on the other side. For former BYU football players, the journey through the transfer portal is a complex one, filled with both success stories and cautionary tales. As the portal continues to shape the college football landscape, it is essential to consider the long-term impact on players' careers and the broader implications for the sport.
